Is Olympia Snowe going to become a Democrat?

 

Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) metting with President Obama

A couple of weeks ago, I posited that all of the Obama Administration’s overtures to Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) might be aimed at something more than a Republican vote on health insurance reform – namely, upsetting the electoral dynamic in Maine and picking up Snowe for the Democrats like they did with Arlen Specter after he voted for the stimulus bill.  In this instance, I’m actually quite pleased to say “I told you so.”

 

Numbers released today from a Maine poll conducted by Public Policy Polling show that Snowe would lose badly in a Republican primary against a more conservative challenger.  59%-31% to be exact.  Of course, there is a lot of time between now and 2012, when Snowe is up for reelection, and she may yet be able to salvage her conservative credentials with the Republican base in Maine, but I doubt it.  The conservative base in makes up about 2/3 of the Republican Party in Maine, and they dislike Snowe by a margin of 75%-18%.  Unless she can make some serious inroads with the far right, her career as a Republican politician is going to come to a close in a little less than 3 years.

Granted, my scenario presumes that to stay in politics, Snowe would switch parties a la Specter rather than withdraw and run as an independent who caucuses with the Republicans a la Joe Lieberman (or retire from politics altogether).  Assuming she decides to run again in 2012, however, I think it’s more likely that she would run as a Democrat than as an independent.  Snowe’s overall approval rating right now is 51%, but that is largely due to the 60% approval ratings that she is getting from Democrats.  A three-way race where Snowe gets very few Republican votes and the Democratic vote is split between a Democratic candidate and an Independent Olympia Snowe is still winnable, but would be a much dicier proposition than just running as a Democrat.  Moreover, even if the Democratic majority shrinks between now and then, I suspect the Democrats will still be in control of the Senate in 4 years, making her seniority much more valuable.

Like I said, only time will really tell what happens in Olympia Snowe’s case, but the lesson here is that actively courting moderate Republican support on big-ticket issues is fueling the Republican civil war and the President should keep doing it.  If you need more persuading on this point, I hear that Dede Scozzafava has some some free time to talk about it.

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